There's more than two and a half years to go before the next municipal election and already rumours are flying about who might take a run at unseating Mayor Fred Eisenberger.

The most recent high-profile name to surface is Mark Chamberlain, the hugely successful businessman and community leader known for his commitment to social causes.

Chamberlain, who was awarded the Distinguished Citizen of the Year for 2007, made his name and fortune as the former head of Wescam, a cutting edge camera system manufacturer.

But these days he's taking a leading hand in everything from the fight against poverty to the battle for affordable housing.

As chair of both the Hamilton Civic Coalition -- a group of influential kingpins working behind the scenes to get Hamilton moving -- and the Roundtable for Poverty Reduction, Chamberlain has established a reputation as a champion of good causes and high hopes.

Given his profile and civic track record, it's perhaps inevitable that his name is getting bandied around as a potential mayoral candidate. The fact that the buzz has found its way to Eisenberger's ear indicates how widespread it is.

Chamberlain, 51, laughs off the idea.

He says there's nothing to the rumours that he's laying plans and sounding out support for running in 2010.

"I take my hat off to those folks who run for public office, but it's not in my current foreseeable future," he says.

Right now, Chamberlain says he is dedicated to supporting Eisenberger and the existing council. He enjoys engaging the community in discussions about some of the tough issues it's facing without the "necessary constraint" of the scrutiny and criticism members of council face.

Does that rule him out down the road?

"I don't use the word never very often, but that shouldn't be construed as, 'Ah, maybe he will.'"

Chamberlain isn't the only person being touted. Councillors Tom Jackson, Chad Collins, Lloyd Ferguson and Terry Whitehead are or have been part of the mayoral rumour mill.

The surprising thing about all this is the timing. If council were still operating under a three-year span of office, this kind of speculation would be standard procedure at this point in the term.

But council now sits for four years. And that makes the conjecturing awfully early.

The reason is almost certainly Eisenberger's perceived weakness.

Eisenberger has clearly grown with the job during his 16 months in office. He's better prepared, more politically assertive and he's diligently working through implementing his campaign platform.

Problem is, he's still fighting an uphill battle for respect, notably among a good number of the 15 councillors who look to the mayor to lead the pack.

As one councillor says, everyone likes Mayor Fred as a person, but many still feel he's in over his head.

More than one observer has noted Eisenberger is more like a 16th councillor than an agenda-setting leader. It's not that he doesn't have ideas. It's that he doesn't work the room to find common ground and line up votes to push them through.

That's largely why Eisenberger is being prematurely sized up for replacement.

None of this means he'll be a pushover when the election arrives. Incumbency always confers advantages. In a field divided by a couple of sturdy candidates, Eisenberger could easily win on a split vote. But going toe-to-toe against a single strong contender might be a different story.

For the record, Eisenberger says he does intend to seek re-election.

"I would hope by then voters would think I'm doing a good job," he says.

No doubt many already do. No doubt others will come round. But if people are already speculating about who's waiting in the wings, Eisenberger is going to be hearing footsteps every step of the way to election day.

Andrew Dreschel's commentary appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. adreschel@thespec.com 905-526-3495.