(Sep 8, 2008)

So Prime Minister Stephen Harper has broken the spirit of his own fixed election date law and rolled the dice, unnecessarily plunging the country into an election for no discernible reason other than the timing seems opportune from a partisan perspective.

So be it.

We've come close to the brink several times since the Conservatives won a minority government in January 2006.

At least now we can put paid to the endless chest-thumping and posturing and clear the turgid air even if, as seems likely at this early stage, all sides once again fall short of a majority.

In case you've forgotten, some of the big issues in the last federal election were the Liberal sponsorship scandal, child care, GST reduction, same-sex marriage, the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces and, of course, health care, the country's perpetually recurring and obligatory election topic.

This time around, the main themes will likely be the creaky economy, the war in Afghanistan, leadership, support for cities, Harper's broken income trust promise, plus some discordant passages evoking the fiscal imbalance and, naturally, the signature health-care motif.

Harper's biggest asset remains Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's rickety command and control credentials.

Dion's best hope is the possibility of a public backlash against Harper's transparent political expediency.

As always, New Democrat Leader Jack Layton has the carefree task of campaigning without worrying about actually forming the government.

And Green party Leader Elizabeth May should be thanking her enviro-friendly stars that the media will dutifully endeavour to take her more seriously than she deserves.

Locally, the landscape really hasn't shifted much since the election drums were beating this time last year.

There are five Hamilton ridings in play.

The three inner city ridings are held by New Democrats.

The two suburban ridings belong to the Conservatives.

So the Liberals, wiped out here after losing three seats in the 2006 election, have nowhere to go but up.

The Liberals' best hope to reclaim a seat may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where former mayor Larry Di Ianni has been chomping at the bit to take on NDP incumbent Wayne Marston, who in 2006 squeaked by Liberal Tony Valeri by 466 votes.

But the Liberals might also have a good shot on Hamilton Mountain, won by New Democrat Chris Charlton in a fierce three-way race.

Until Charlton's victory in 2006, the riding had been Liberal since 1988.

Lawyer Tyler Banham is doing the lifting for the Grits here. He's young, he's energetic and he has been hard at work promoting himself and the party.

That said, the Conservatives can't be discounted either, especially with former city councillor Terry Anderson in the wheelhouse for Harper.

As for the rest, it's a truism of federal politics that people vote for the party not the candidate.

If that's the case, the survival of Conservative MPs David Sweet in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale and Dean Allison in Niagara West-Glanbrook will depend more on satisfaction with Harper than what they have or haven't done for their ridings.

But if there's a local exception to the truism, surely it bears the familiar face of New Democrat David Christopherson in Hamilton Centre.

Christopherson, who has represented the city at the municipal, provincial and now federal level, may belong to the NDP, but his brand is pure Steeltown.

If he's not a shoo-in, nobody is. Still, the only thing Christopherson has ever taken for granted politically is the need to work hard and get the vote out.

For their part, Liberals in Hamilton Centre hope to have a new candidate on deck as early as today.

Their original choice, Victoria Young, unexpectedly bowed out in the dying days of the calm that preceded the unelectrifying storm now upon us.

Andrew Dreschel's commentary appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. adreschel@thespec.com 905-526-3495