(Sep 13, 2008)

A safe seat is a rare political commodity. In my opinion, only two local ridings qualify for that definition in the current federal election. They happen to be occupied by political polar opposites David Christopherson and David Sweet.

Christopherson is the fiery New Democrat from Hamilton Centre. He won't even break a sweat on the road to re-election. It took the Liberals until a week into the campaign to even find a candidate to contest Hamilton Centre.

Christopherson first wrestled the riding from Liberal cabinet minister Stan Keyes in 2004 on the rebound from an unsuccessful mayoralty run. He has lots of raw political talent and the kind of name recognition and voter loyalty that only come from a career in public life.

The riding that Christopherson represents is predominately working-class, decidedly urban and in many ways a perfect demographic match for his fighting demeanor. Christopherson is likely safe in Hamilton Centre until his political retirement.

Conservative David Sweet, from Ancaster-Flamborough-Dundas-Westdale, holds the second safest local seat. Compared with Christopherson's high profile, Sweet operates largely below the media radar. The somewhat charismatically challenged Sweet will never be mistaken for Barack Obama with a microphone, preferring instead to work quietly behind the scenes to get stuff done.

Sweet earned his safe and mostly suburban seat the old-fashioned way, with relentless service to his constituents and by building the strongest grassroots political machine seen in these parts since the late and legendary Liberal John Munro.

What is surprising is that Sweet has been so successful representing a riding that is hardly a slam-dunk demographically for Conservatives and despite the disadvantages of being a backbencher in a party that continues to struggle in southern Ontario.

Liberals John Bryden and Russ Powers held AFDW for most of the past 20 years, only relinquishing it to Sweet after a tough fight in 2006 with the election of Stephen Harper's minority government. And AFDW continues to be occupied provincially by Liberal cabinet minister Ted McMeekin.

Given that history, you would have expected the Liberals to target AFDW for recapture if they hoped to resuscitate party fortunes in Hamilton in this election. After all, Liberals owned the local political market as recently as 2000 when they captured all four federal seats in Hamilton.

But Liberal insiders concede that, failing an unlikely Ontario sweep by Stephane Dion, they are focused in Hamilton on winning two close races with the NDP in Stoney Creek and Hamilton Mountain.

I asked Liberal-leaning city councillor Lloyd Ferguson about Sweet's unlikely political ascension. Ferguson knows a bit about politics in the riding, given that members of his family have won 22 consecutive election victories in rural and suburban Ancaster, dating back to the 1950s.

Ferguson says Sweet will be tough to beat.

"David is everywhere in the constituency without having to grab attention. You go to the Ancaster cleanup day, and David's there with his family picking up garbage.

"People in a small town really appreciate that kind of low-key work ethic."

There are no sure things in elections, and this race is a long way from over. But with their very different approaches to life and to politics, I wouldn't bet the farm against either David Christopherson or David Sweet.

Columnist Terry Cooke is a former Hamilton-Wentworth regional chair and a former Conservative party adviser.